Time to press the panic button?

Jonathon Porritt, 5th February 2010, Climate change, Forum founders
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I’m still reeling from the surreal sight of Lord Whacko Monckton (the climate contrarians’ eccentric of choice), captured on Newsnight last night doing an imitation of Al Gore at a public meeting in Australia. Frightening stuff.

Whenever I see Monckton at work, it reminds me just how desperate people must be to have their doubts and prejudices about climate change affirmed by some public figure – indeed, by any public figure at this stage of the debate.

The politics of climate change in Australia are even worse that they are here in the UK. That may well be, paradoxically, because changes in their own micro-climates over the last 10 years have been so much more visible. And painful. And this has polarised the debate about whether these changes are primarily a consequence of man-made emissions of greenhouse gases, or primarily natural climate variability. The end result is that the Australian Prime Minister, Kevin Rudd, might have to call a general election to break the impasse on his proposals for a carbon-trading scheme.

Could it get that bad here in the UK? Very improbably, but the whole tenor of the debate has deteriorated so badly, so rapidly, that it's now a serious political headache, rather than a minor irritant.

The combination of the ‘climate gate’ fiasco at the University of East Anglia and the growing concerns about the workings of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), broader concerns of the whole peer review process (the so-called ‘Gold Standard’ of scientific research), and the utter failure of Copenhagen has transformed the climate debate here in the UK.

Where they were once thought as contrarian outliers, both the Daily Mail and the Daily Express are now thought to be closely aligned with public opinion. Ed Miliband (the Secretary of State in the Dept of Energy and Climate Change) must be in despair.

So should we be pressing the panic button? I think we should. The damage done to the credibility not just of climate science but also of the UK’s entire approach to climate change is already serious – and getting worse. This could be extremely problematic in the run up to the general election.

So if I was Gordon Brown, I would be asking David Cameron and Nick Clegg to issue a joint invitation to Martin Rees, the President of the Royal Society, asking him to convene a high-level Scientific Panel to comment on ‘the state of the science’ two years from the publication of the IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report at the end of 2007.

Does it still stack up? What should people make of all these recent revelations? Is the Climate Change Act (to which all three political parties have signed up) still based on robust scientific foundations? Can people still have confidence in the way climate science drives climate policy?

Martin Rees would be asked to recruit three or four top scientists (reflecting different shades of opinion), a couple of business people (like James Dyson or Richard Lambert of the CBI), and a couple of scientifically-literate ‘pillars of the community’ in whom the general public has absolute trust. No NGOs, let alone campaigners!

Give them two months. Bang out a short, sharp report written for lay people, not for scientists. Blitz the media. Run a full-page ad in the Mail and Express for weeks on end – instead of today’s highly questionable ‘Act on CO2 ‘ ads.

Overkill? Possibly. It seems ludicrous that what is still by any standards a rock-solid scientific consensus should have to be shored up by such extreme measures. But if we don’t, might we be looking at an Aussie-style meltdown in public opinion in the near term?

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petitions at no 10

i Have two petitions at no 10 - one asking that the climae change issue be given an equivalent status to wartime footing
secondly I am asking that an international baseline is agreed as to populations in each nation by which future calculations will be made - this will place a downward pressure on population growth as there will be more assets or credits per capita on low growth or shrinking populations

re: Time to press the panic button?

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Panic Button!

I’m not really surprised to hear that people are now suspicious of the global warming information that has come out in recent times; scientists have to report their findings with honesty, not lie or spin results that seem to conflict with prediction and/or expectation, or what is the point? False information reporting is far worse than mistaken information. Anyone can make a mistake, but to hide behind false information or purposely misleading statistics is the worst kind of science, leave the spinning to politicians. It must be said this seems to be a particular problem with a number of scientific fields just of late so the climate scientists should not, perhaps be singled out; rather the peer system needs to be reviewed. It seems to me, if someone finds a result that differs from perceived wisdom in any science subject that person is immediately vilified and/or told they are obviously wrong, stupid or incompetent. All of which may be true until you find that the peer group are either too busy, lazy or just don’t like the results. It really isn’t surprising science sometimes enters blind alleys or struggles to move forward. Scientists above all people should remember that perceived wisdom is often just that perceived!
It seems to me that if you want to engage with “the people” you need to treat them with a little respect, and believe they can understand complex issues. So you as scientists and politicians believe global warming is at least in part caused by human activity i.e. the burning of fossil fuels. O.K. this is one of the most complex of issues involving inputs from the sun, atmosphere, sea, deforestation and other human activities to produce energy. Keeping it reasonably simple, I would recommend a more holistic approach to the subject and avoid using absolutes and scare tactics, you can point out that even though there is a huge natural carbon cycle that takes place each year, human activity is a net additional input of carbon (that can and has been measured?) and could be a factor in increasing global warming, you can point out that the sea takes in a huge amount of carbon each year as part of the carbon cycle, so do plants on the land but before human activity really got going the amount of carbon released to the atmosphere was almost exactly balanced by the amount of carbon that was removed by plankton and plants. Since Mans increased activity there is today, a net increase of carbon left in the atmosphere due to the addition created by burning fossil fuels and a reduction of carbon removal from the atmosphere due to deforestation, this at least is believed to be partly responsible for global warming or at least speeding the process up. The last statement is referring to the fact that the largest single influence on our planet is the sun, which is a cyclical beast and goes through various cycles of getting warmer and cooler and unsurprisingly has a direct effect on the earth. Some people believe that this alone is responsible for global warming, but a surprising correlation has been seen between the rates of global warming in line with the rate of fossil fuel extraction over the last approximately one hundred years that would sagest that human activity is having an adverse effect on our climate. On a personal note I would like to point out that regardless of your position with regard to global warming, human activity is polluting our planet at a great rate of knots (a technical term!). Various pollutants now affect many of our rivers ether rendering them lifeless except for microbes and bacteria or more innocuously turning all the fish female. Large areas of land is being contaminated due to oil spillage, fly ash from coal burning and combustion products of allsorts goes into our atmosphere not just carbon dioxide, this is mainly driven for our desire for energy and the by-products of oil including our ground water being contaminated by farming derived fertilizer and insecticide effluent. This is an oversimplification of what is trying to be relied to people to point out our responsibilities to our environment but hopefully it gives the general idea of the how. It should be remembered by all of us we are not trying to save the planet here, mother nature has been quite happy to do things in the long term even after major setbacks such as massive volcanoes and asteroids, she’s been doing it for approximately five billion years before humans arrived and she will carry on for about the same amount of time after our demise.

Panic Button

Don't give up on us Aussies just yet Jonathon. The Leader of the opposition (Malcolm Turnball) who was deposed by one vote by his party as a result of his support of recognising Climate Change as an issue (just not overly supportive of the logistics of the suggest emissions trading scheme model presented) shows that some politicians can work together regardless of their party politics. Unfortunately it hasn't quite worked out that way in Australia yet...let's hope that Kevin can be more successful in the future.

While there is public support for reforms in the Down Under countries, it seems that we are forever looking at our larger brother nations to start the ball rolling. He's hoping that for once politicians across the world can have a little foresight and see the costs that will be involved in the future from not doing anything now, rather than the minuscule amount in comparison now. It is our problem now, why should we expect future generations to pay for our mistakes - we don't like having to do that for our forefathers so why should we expect those down the track to do it for us?

Let's say the scientists are wrong (and no I am in full support of the climatologist scientists) - what will we benefit? A world that is far more wonderful, healthier, safer and pleasant to live in....less air pollution, waste, disregard for other species and thought for the products we need, use and want in our lives.

Panic button - push it push it push it - because until it is, apathy unfortunately will reign.